"Doug O'Brien trades from his apartment in St. Hyacinthe, Que. He is the current leader in the Financial Post's Stock Market Challenge contest (15 000 participants), having turned $100,000 into almost $690,000 in 24 trading days."
Richard Morrison, Financial Post
Published: Thursday, October 09, 2008
Doug O'Brien's lead in the financial post.comStock Challenge contest looks almost insurmountable, even though we're only one-sixth of the way through the 18-week event. By yesterday's market close, Mr. O'Brien, who plays as "risingstar," had turned the $100,000 in play money he started with in mid-September into $688,185.55, a gain of 588% in just 24 trading days, well ahead of the second-place participant with $293,203. Another 10 contestants have amassed $200,000 or more.
The contest, which ends in mid-January, awards a $25,000 cash prize to the top trader (more than 25 trades) and the top investor (less than 25 trades), with $15,000 going to the second-place finisher in each category and $10,000 for third. Contestants can buy any stock or exchange-traded fund listed on the TSX, NYSE, Nasdaq or AMEX.
Mr. O'Brien's week started off with a bang: His portfolio briefly shot past $750,000 as markets crashed on Monday.
"I had about 10 stocks that I was short at the beginning of the day and I really did well," he said in an interview. "The market went down the tubes."
By late that afternoon, he had made close to $100,000 and would have made nearly $30,000 more, "but I made a couple of little booboos that I don't normally make. I guess I was getting a little overconfident."
The 65-year-old retired insurance sales manager from St. Hyacinthe, Que., said he missed a similar opportunity to widen his lead on Tuesday. "Nothing was going on and around three o'clock I sort of slouched off, and if I'd stayed there another half hour I would've made another 50 grand at least."
Mr. O'Brien, who has been averaging 60 trades a day, said he reviewed the rules and was surprised to discover players are limited to 5,000 trades over the life of the contest, which means he will have to limit his trading activity.
He spends his weekdays watching computer screens arrayed around his desk in his apartment, tapping in orders to buy, sell or sell short, depending on the direction of the market and the speed of its movement. The greater the volatility, the faster the profits roll in, but timing comes down to seconds, he said.
"When I see it turning, that's when I go," he said. "You don't wait, because you only have so much time, especially if the market is turning."
Once all his stocks start to reverse direction, he will frantically try to sell them all, "but it takes a minute to get a sale made. I'm usually on the edge of my seat."
Mr. O'Brien said he uses one computer to make his Stock Challenge contest trades, while another carries charts and other market-monitoring software from Montreal-based DecisionPlus ( decisionplus.com).The two screens to Mr. O'Brien's left display Vancouver-based StockWatch ( stock-watch.com),which collects and disseminates business news. Mr. O'Brien said he doesn't take the same chances with his real-money portfolio, but it does hold his favourite stocks.
A comparison with other investors' real-money portfolios would probably look similar to the contest results, he admitted. "I'd probably be on top."
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